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Extinguishers and testing a theory! - Chronarchy

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May 16th, 2006


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10:24 am - Extinguishers and testing a theory!
Today, life just got about eight billion times better.

The fire extinguisher chic is back. . .

But that's not why I'm posting.

perlgirlju and I have established that I am "lucky".

Now, I need to test this theory. Because I want to be all scientific (of course), what sort of test should I set up to determine if I am, indeed, lucky?

I know there are some scientists (even professional ones) on my flist. Hook me up with something fun and yet scientifically valid?
Current Location: Southeast of Disorder
Current Mood: amusedamused
Current Music: "Gypsies in the Palace", -JB

(25 comments Leave a comment)

Comments:


From:silverwitch
Date:May 16th, 2006 02:50 pm (UTC)
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First you have to define what lucky is for your experiment. Lay down some clear parameters "for the purpose of this study, being lucky is a. b. and c." Then you go from there. ;-)
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From:chronarchy
Date:May 16th, 2006 02:53 pm (UTC)
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I think I need some help with that, then, too.

I mean, perhaps I simply have good luck. Or else, maybe I, myself, have occurred by such chance as to be "lucky." Or maybe, just maybe, having me around brings others luck.
From:silverwitch
Date:May 16th, 2006 03:52 pm (UTC)
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I think the problem is that lucky is a vastly subjective idea. What is lucky for you may be unlucky to someone else and vice versa. And then there's the whole chance thing...doing an empirical observation of chance is sort of a paradox, but - that sounds like something right up your alley, doesn't it? ;-)
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From:raydon_12
Date:May 16th, 2006 02:51 pm (UTC)

They call you "Lucky"?

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I'm suddenly reminded of the old Dirty Harry movie. "Do you feel lucky punk, well, do you?" Hehehehe

I'm not sure what the best way would be to design an experiment for this. Its actually more in the realm of statistics than anything else. HHmmmm. The hard part would be establishing some kind of control group or control element.



ps: what software do you use for your web site?
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From:chronarchy
Date:May 16th, 2006 02:55 pm (UTC)

Re: They call you "Lucky"?

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Software? None, really. Most of it's done in notepad, with frontpage occasionally used to do quick HTMLing (but I keep a firm hand on the code itself).

There's a bit of cgi scripting and the occasional javascript, but I don't even use CSS. I code every page by hand, usually off a template that I built by hand.
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From:raydon_12
Date:May 16th, 2006 02:58 pm (UTC)

Re: They call you "Lucky"?

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Wow, I bow to the master! I'm totally clueless when it comes to that stuff. I do want to get a web page going some day soon though.
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From:chronarchy
Date:May 16th, 2006 02:59 pm (UTC)

Re: They call you "Lucky"?

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Dreamweaver is the preferred editor, though Frontpage works just fine, in all honesty. People freak out about one or the other, but in essence, if you're "totally clueless", then one is just as good as the other :)
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From:raydon_12
Date:May 16th, 2006 03:09 pm (UTC)

Re: They call you "Lucky"?

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Cool, I have a copy of FrontPage through the office. Another friend has suggested something called firstpage. I think thats what it was called anyway.

Thanks!
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From:serendipity_9
Date:May 16th, 2006 03:48 pm (UTC)

Re: They call you "Lucky"?

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Even MSWord can dummy up web pages. Just click on File->SaveAs and then select from the "Save as type" drop-down list "web page." [personally, I prefer the raw html, as it is neater and takes up less bandwidth]

And if you're looking for a quick-n-dirty ftp program, just use MS-Explorer and type in ftp://www.[my website].com -- then File->LoginAs and put in your username & password (password can be saved in the memory if you wish) given to you by your Internet Service Provider.

[Not that I like Microsoft, but it is the easiest software to come by]
From:ceolnamara
Date:May 16th, 2006 04:20 pm (UTC)
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Hmm... You could do a jaywalking test, and count how many times you don't get hit by vehicles.

Or, not, really, it's your choice ;-)
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From:ceolnamara
Date:May 16th, 2006 05:12 pm (UTC)
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Well, a test of not dying or ending up in a world of pain, really. In my life, that takes luck. And mine can be bloody selective sometimes ;-p
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From:singingwren
Date:May 16th, 2006 05:03 pm (UTC)
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Keep track of how many times statements you make beginning with "I hope..." come true. Those are different than will and want statements. I think they have a lot to do with luck.

Also identify what makes you FEEL lucky. Like, when I say something about how it would be nice if the sun came out and WHAM it magically does, I always feel lucky. Or when something small but unusual happens, like when I get two fortunes in my cookie instead of one or when I accidentally oversleep class but then discover the next day that class was randomly cancelled anyway. I also feel lucky the Universe hands me "get out of jail free" cards, which I am forced to admit it does for me entirely too often. :)

Play games of absolute chance and see how often the odds are in your favour... can YOU beat four people in one fell stroke when you play paper rock scissors the very first round? ;D

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From:serendipity_9
Date:May 16th, 2006 05:36 pm (UTC)

Lucky?

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Of course you're lucky. Can't be Eris' favourite plaything without being lucky! Good luck, bad luck, purple luck, orange luck, green luck...

It's all in how you perceive things that come your way by chance.

Someone needs to post a meme-quiz on this luck thingy. Perhaps come up with lots of ambiguous questions like:

So you're at Wellspring and you sink up to your ankles into the spongy mass they call grass. What do you do:

a: Grimace and swear never to return to Wetspring again.
b: Remove your soggy shoe-sock mass and with a Whoop! dance around in the 50-degree mud.
c: Remove your soggy shoe-sock mass and get the dry socks out of their Zip-Lock bag and encase them and your legs in the Wellies you brought "just in case."
d: Ask the Chenille Canopy if their Adopt-a-Druid program has an extra pair of dry shoes (you'll wear the socks you wore yesterday).

I'd say a=-9, b=9, c=6 and d=3 for scaling purposes (bigger number=lucky)
From:ceolnamara
Date:May 16th, 2006 07:01 pm (UTC)

Re: Lucky?

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Haha, you're funny. I'd choose C with a good dose of A. But I'm like a disgruntled old man who's show was pre-empted for the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Cane and all ;-)
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From:serendipity_9
Date:May 17th, 2006 12:18 am (UTC)

Re: Lucky?

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I found a similar quiz. Heh, heh.
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From:tanrinia
Date:May 16th, 2006 07:35 pm (UTC)
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as a sociologist, i'm not allowed to believe in luck. therefore, a test would be in situations which could be defined as lucky, to debunk them (it wasn't luck, it was because of X).
From:silverwitch
Date:May 16th, 2006 08:37 pm (UTC)
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Nah - you can believe in luck, but you just can't write a paper about luck and then try to present it at the ASA and expect to still have a career. ;-p
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From:tanrinia
Date:May 17th, 2006 05:14 pm (UTC)
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oh yeah right! it's been so long since i've been to ASA i nearly forgot :)

i guess that means my alien abduction paper will probably not work either :)
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From:tesinth
Date:May 16th, 2006 07:58 pm (UTC)
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Not the best version, but it gets the point across:

There is a Chinese story of a farmer who used an old horse to till his fields. One day, the horse escaped into the hills and when the farmer's neighbors sympathized with the old man over his bad luck, the farmer replied, "Bad luck? Good luck? Who knows?" A week later, the horse returned with a herd of horses from the hills and this time the neighbors congratulated the farmer on his good luck. His reply was, "Good luck? Bad luck? Who knows?"

Then, when the farmer's son was attempting to tame one of the wild horses, he fell off its back and broke his leg. Everyone thought this very bad luck. Not the farmer, whose only reaction was, "Bad luck? Good luck? Who knows?"

Some weeks later, the army marched into the village and conscripted every able-bodied youth they found there. When they saw the farmer's son with his broken leg, they let him off. Now was that good luck or bad luck?

/damn taoist!
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From:rfunk
Date:May 17th, 2006 02:08 am (UTC)

luck

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I believe in good luck but not bad luck. And on the whole I find myself a rather lucky person. Which is cause and which is effect (if either one) is not for me to say.

How did you and perlgirlju establish that you are lucky? Isn't that establishment enough?
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From:sparkliedragon
Date:May 17th, 2006 02:44 am (UTC)
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I don't think there's a scientifically valid way to test for luck. Luck is not measurable, you can't quantitatively analyze luck. You could make a list of everything you considered "lucky" and then assign numerical values to each event, but that gives it a personal bias.

That being said, here are some suggestions:

Observational: list the times you were lucky throughout the day, over the course of a few days, to establish frequency of lucky events, and compare to other's lucky events.

Experimental: Make above-mentioned list of events, assign values, and find two or three willing average Joes. Have each participant take a short test beforehand on how lucky they think they are, and what their lucky events are. Incorporate these events in to the list. Everyone takes that list, and over the course of x days, total the daily values of lucky events. Then find a simple, suitable statistical test to determine if you are indeed luckier.
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From:lillassea
Date:May 17th, 2006 03:42 am (UTC)
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The test could involve you, me, strawberries, and whipped cream.

Oh wait, you said "lucky," not "GET lucky."
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From:chronarchy
Date:May 18th, 2006 06:46 pm (UTC)
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Forget what I said: I like this test!

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